10:42 AM Tue, Dec 23, 2008 | Permalink
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I thought I'd share some of my thoughts and observations on this gift of white that Mother Nature has given us for the Holidays.
Let me start off by saying that from a forecasting perspective, snow is one of the most interesting and challenging to forecast.
Throw in the topography that is the Inland Northwest, and I'm guessing no bookie in Vegas is "taking the points" on my forecast.
It certainly has the potential to be a bust sometime, somewhere in these parts. We get calls and emails all the time from folks suffering from "myhouseitis".
If it didn't happen at my house, it didn't happen at all. As tv meteorologists, we understand that and try and treat the symptoms by providing the most accurate forecast possible, but as they say in this business, you're only as good as your last forecast.
So even though we sometimes feel like Nicholas Cage in that movie, "The Weatherman", we understand it comes with the territory.
Now as far as this wild winter weather, I know, you're thinking here we go again. And at the beginning of the season, my thoughts were that it would be an "average" snowfall this year (roughly 44 inches of snow for the season). My reasoning is solely based on history, not some fancy scientific evidence, and not Al Gore.
Last year was a La Nina year (over 92 inches for the season), which for us, typically means a more active weather pattern. The opposite would be El Nino, which would typically mean a less active pattern and we wind up crying for snow and rain. This year was forecast to be neutral with neither feature more prominent than the other.
That still leads me to believe although things have been active of late, I think we'll eventually go through a lull in which we start asking who turned off the snow machine?!
Those are my thoughts, but granted, I've been a little "off" before.
Happy Holidays!
This is a helpful explanation. I grew up
in Oklahoma where weather prediction is
quite precise because there aren't any
microclimates. When the weatherman says
the rain will reach 23rd Street by 8:43,
he's on the dot.
Around here, that sort of precision is
clearly impossible.
Anyway, let's pray for a LOOOOONNNNGGGG lull
after this, so we can regress to the mean.
I went out to look for the handle to the snow machine, but alas it was broken and doesn't look like it can be repaired any time soon
JASON! You don't have a “hot-line” to Mother Nature or even GOD for that matter! We might think you do but you don't, which is pretty much what you were trying to convey in your blog. You can only use and work with the tools you've been given. Even with those, you are still limited to your expertise in combining information collected from them with your knowledge and experience in this science. The fact is … this is not an “EXACT science.” So! Give yourself a break, my friend!
Mother Nature and God love to spring surprises on us all the time just to test our strength and endurance. Don’t lose faith or confidence. It is obvious that you are dedicated and committed to your profession and you are doing a fabulous job in providing a necessary service to our community.
Keep it up and hang in there! It’s not like you aren’t personally affected by all of this too!
I think you secretly want a big snow year - that's why you're predicting a lull. I mean, hey, if you're right about it, then you get to bask in being right and for a weather guy, that's BIG. And if you're wrong, no biggie, you added a disclaimer and really, big snow is big fun.
Pretty tricky :P
In all seriousness, I don't buy into any historical pattern of the weather and I never will. I think the best way to forecast the weather is to look outside. Beyond that, it's anyone's guess because there are entirely too many variables. I do agree that radar helps, but helpful is not reliable.
Well, that's my 2 cents. I'll bill you later.
Peace and good luck and have a great holiday!
Thanks for doing your best. I enjoy your forecast with its humor and education, even if the results throw us all for a loop.
Merry Christmas!
Can you post on the KREM site the differences between a weather storm warning, storm watch, and storm advisory? These terms get very confusing and it is hard to keep 'em all straight some times. Thanks, Jason. No Jason-voodo dolls here! We love ya!
Jane and family!
I sure wish we had won one of those snow blowers that you gave away! Life would have been alot easier.. and my back wouldn't be as sore!
Welsome to Spokane.
Just a note to say that you are doing a wonderful job. My sister sent me an email with pictures of lenticular clouds over Mt. Rainier. They are outstanding. If you want them what is the email address I can forward them to, if not that's okay too.
Have a brrrrr, great week.
Virginia
Just think of the money that all local televsion stations could save by eliminating the "weather personalities". We have the emergency broadcast system when it really counts. Otherwise, stick your head outside!
I tried your link for WA weather. I got a list of cities and Spokane had 48 degrees. Do you guys ever update this? People are especially dependent right now on getting accurate, up-to-the-minute weather, and it does NOT help to have weeks- or months- old information.
Also, I have a fairly fast ISP so why do I have to watch a good-quality Toyota commercial BEFORE I get a lousy-quality weather video that both looks and sounds bad? Having trouble there too?
Why does another weather link go to football stuff instead? Can't KREM keep its website tidy, current and informative?
Wishful thinking? I give kudos to ALL the forecasters. Despite all our satellites and computers, forecasting is still an inexact science.
Let's all enjoy the snow as much as possible. A good snowpack means water during the dry parts of the year and reduces the fire danger.
PLEASE clean your sidewalks to make it easier for person to navigate them... and save you from a costly lawsuit.
I get up early to exercise while I watch the news, and half the time you have me laughing right in the middle of a set of sit ups! We are glad for your fun personality that adds a fresh spin on the news.
Thank you for you hard work!!!
before the winter season began you predicted average snow fall of 45". we already have that. to keep from being called a false prophet in the future please say something like it's impossible to predict such things.
you're a character just the same.
BOB
I wonder what Bob Quinn at EWU thinks about this weather. I remember during my college years at EWU, that is except for the winter of 92/93, I wondered where the snow was . . . but these last two years are anomalous to say the least. I suspect there's a reason. I remember in Weather and Climate at EWU, Dr. Quinn would talk about how during the transition for the next ice age, the snow line would creep south fron Canada. He said it'd happen fairly quickly (like over a 100-year period) -- perhaps these last two years are going to represent an increasing average snow accumulation annually moving forward.
BTW Jason -- it's okay to think Al Gore is on to something.
Jason I just signed up with Krem and mainly wanted to coment on how much I respect your forcast up dates. I am disabled and I am stuck at home for many hours aday and I watch Krem a lot. The way you all keep on top of all the weather and other news is so cool. I trully feel the respect you all have for your vewers. Thank you so much forputting all the extra time and energy in your broadcast.
Don
Finally! You explained why the weather reports are always so hinky. I was beginning to think all the weathermen/women in Spokane needed to go to rehab!! It's not so much the "myhouseitis" as it is the various types of terrain. The weather in Reardan is often nowhere near what it is on Five Mile Prairie or downtown. So, when you give the generic temperature for Spokane, are you getting it from the airport or downtown? You guys are no longer on my "crazy fruit loop" list!
please remind viewers that it is their responsibility to clear their sidewalks, especially since school starts back on Monday and I would hate to see the kids HAVING to walk in the streets to get to school.
Since all of this snow started falling, my husband has been a good semaritain for several people in hayden. He has a 4-wheeler with a plow on it and he has been plowing out several people so they can get out. Even though he feel and broke some ribs he keeps plowing. So I think he deserves a big thank you, since he does this out of the goodness of his heart. Thank You Gerry Trudeau!!!
Are there any betting pools going on that says we will indeed top last year's snow totals? I am in, if there are!
Hey Jason Kadah,
My husband and I really enjoy your forcast each morning because you make us laugh, and I'm not a morning person! My husband is. Thanks for your best efforts to predict our horrible weather this winter. I'm really tired of falling, shoveling, and getting my pants wet. My husband is the chapion shoveler. He is a construction worker and is a framer. He has been trying to finish framing a house, and he has done A LOT OF SHOVELING For free for the house he is trying to finish, so he can finish it and be done with it! He shoveled off my Aunt and Uncle's roof with a few buddies, and basically they are lucky their roof is still standing. He has helped the nearly 80 year old neighbor shovel from time to time, but it is hard to keep up with!
take care, and we won't hold it against you if you are wrong on forcasts, We'll need to have Noah come back to modern day with his ark once the flood comes!
Angela!
What the heck, I have not seen a drop of rain yet, and I am on North Country Homes Blvd. This is snow, snow, snow!!! I can't just wait until I try to get home tonight.
Hi Jason,
Me and my husband enjoy watching your weather and newscast in the morning you make us laugh. Keep up the good work!!
hey Jason
do be so positive remember when this whole thing started you said we were only gonna get 3-6" and we ended up getting all of this!! lol
Hello Jason, I live in Jacksonville Beach, Florida and have you in my favorites as my daughter..Tanya and grandson Braxton live in Spokane. I caught your so so mention of the "Gators" and thought maybe you needed to hear from me. FEAR THE SWAMP!! Oklahoma 's quaterback found out what it was like to go against a real quaterback...Tim Tebow. Our 2nd championship in three years....We rocked the Sooners. Its plain to see that Oklahoma can talk the talk but they can't walk the walk. We of the Gator Nation thank you for the chance to express our opinion.
Jason, you are a welcome addition to Spokane news! You always make crack me up - your 80's references kill me every time! Thanks for the great job you're doing!
Jason, I just want to say how much I, my family, and my staff at work enjoys your morning weather reports. I never thought we could have a weatherman that is both entertaining AND informative. You seem to have the perfect balance. Your explanation of the recent fog made perfect sense to me and I didn't feel like I needed a Ph. D to understand the science. We also appreciate your candor; you were the first to admit when your snow prediction was off a bit. The day you leave krem news will be the day we all switch back to khq news.
Keep up the fantastic work. We appreciate the way you help us start our day.